Last week, MTV revealed the nominees for the 2024 Video Music Awards. The award show has certainly fluctuated in relevancy over the last 30 years, and it’s having a slight comeback as of late. The show was home to Taylor Swift’s announcement of Midnights in 2022, a moment that kicked off the absolute dominant 2023 for the pop star. In 2024 the show has already confirmed performances from some of the biggest pop stars such as Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan. It’ll certainly be a night to remember. Here are some of our predictions for who’s walking home with those little gold astronauts on September 11th.
Artist of the Year: Taylor Swift
Taylor Swift’s dominance at the VMAs is far less assured in 2024 than it was in 2023. Don’t worry, we don’t mean Swift has “fallen off.” But considering the impossible bar set by the U.S. Eras Tour run last summer, and much stronger competition in pop music, I think Taylor will have a much harder time sweeping as thoroughly as she did last year. That being said, the VMAs love Taylor, and she loves them. With a new full-length album, there’s a zero percent chance Taylor will walk away empty-handed at the 2024 VMAs.
Her competition for Artist of the Year looks somewhat favorable for her. Ariana Grande’s new record has been long overshadowed, not only by Taylor but also by Sabrina Carpenter, Billie Eilish and Charli XCX. The latter of the two are not nominated in this category. Sabrina Carpenter has had two of the summer’s most dominant songs, but considering voting is likely being done before the release of Short N’ Sweet, we aren’t betting on Sabrina’s chances. SZA also feels unlikely. Despite loving her music, SOS came out in late 2022. If SZA couldn’t beat Taylor when that album was new, having some singles and features isn’t going to get her the momentum to take home this award.
Bad Bunny and Eminem are more wild cards. Bad Bunny has been a massive superstar, especially outside of America for a very long time. Despite there being a very good argument in favor of him, I think the American bias of the VMAs will keep Eminem from taking this slot. Eminem is the only rapper in the category, and while he’s a legend, The Death of Slim Shady hasn’t made Eminem popular with Gen Z. It’s mainly just reignited his fanbase. Sure, Eminem is probably a frontrunner for Video Vanguard, just because of his peak coinciding with MTV’s. We’d still put our money on Taylor, even though Em is the most likely after her to take this award.
Song of the Year: “Not Like Us” by Kendrick Lamar
Giving a major award to a diss track such as “Not Like Us” may seem weird on paper, but with the earth-shattering impact the song has already had, a VMA win would be the least surprising accolade to add to the song. Considering this is the only category the song is nominated in (yes it’s not up for best hip-hop) it’d be beyond strange to see Kendrick Lamar walk away with nothing. Kendrick has been a critical darling his whole career, and I’d expect a VMA to be the first of many awards Kendrick will receive through the rest of the year for this song. Undeniably it’s one of the most culturally impactful songs of the year, and I don’t think it’s easy to argue that anyone but Kendrick should be talking this home.
Video of the Year: “Houdini” by Eminem
Eminem’s “Houdini” is up against pretty stiff competition for its VMA in Video of the Year. However, the “Houdini” video showcases why the VMAs nominated the now 50-year-old Eminem for so many awards. Eminem has produced some of the most iconic music videos of all time, including “The Real Slim Shady”, “My Name Is” and “Without Me.”
The Slim Shady era, as previously mentioned coincides with MTV’s cultural relevance. Just like them bringing *NSYNC back on stage last year, there’s no way the VMAs won’t take advantage of the time they have with Eminem. Considering the video for “Houdini” is such a clear throwback to the classic era, both of Eminem and of MTV, I think it’ll be able to secure the award. Yes, the VMAs need to appeal to a Gen Z audience, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t people who still love MTV because of what it was in its heyday. That audience is likely rooting for Eminem, and I think Video of the Year makes the most sense as the category he wins.
Best New Artist: Chappell Roan
There are a lot of great artists that are up for Best New Artist at the VMAs this year. However, there’s only one who breaks records at every festival she goes to, dominates the charts with songs that are coming close to a year old, and was one of the first artists announced to be performing at the VMAs. At the end of the day “your favorite artist’s favorite artist” is the clear front runner for “Best New Artist” at pretty much every award show for the rest of the year.
In a world of constant pressure to release new music to stay relevant, the fact that Chappell Roan hasn’t followed up “Good Luck Babe” despite it being released in early April but has continued to grow in status proves the sheer power she already commands. While artists like Tyla and Shaboozey have certainly had great years, Chappell Roan is having a top 5 year of any pop star, let alone a new artist. Chappell Roan taking this award is probably one of the safest predictions of the whole ceremony.
Best Collaboration: “I Had Some Help” by Morgan Wallen and Post Malone
Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s country smash of a collab “I Had Some Help” carries the momentum that Morgan, and country music in general, had in 2023, dominating nearly anything not Taylor Swift-related for the first half of the year. “I Had Some Help” has been majorly successful, and without a country-dedicated category, the VMAs will want to throw another bone to the country resurgence of the last two years. That being said, this is nearly a guaranteed win for Post Malone, as “Fortnight” with Taylor Swift’s sheer star power makes the next most obvious contender for this spot. I could also see a world where this goes to “Wanna Be” with Megan Thee Stallion and GloRilla.
Best Pop: Sabrina Carpenter
Our prediction of Sabrina Carpenter for “Best Pop” isn’t confident; however, we think this is her most likely category to win. Camila Cabello and Dua Lipa underperformed the expected hype of their new projects, which was disheartening when Radical Optimism was one of the most anticipated albums of the year. Tate McRae simply does not have a long-standing career or the modern momentum to secure her a win in this spot. Maybe last year, you could’ve argued for her as a breakout star, but “greedy” and “exes” peaked too long ago for her to beat this lineup in September.
Olivia Rodrigo is nominated for shockingly little, considering the love for GUTS, but considering the record will have just turned a year old when the VMAS roll around, it makes sense. I simply think the bad timing will be what keeps her from taking home a win at the VMAs. Aside from that, it’s Sabrina and Taylor. If we assume Taylor takes home Artist of the Year, Sabrina winning here is a pretty reasonable pick. I think “Espresso” is a harder song to argue for in the music video-centric categories. However, with the success Short N’ Sweet’s first two singles have had and her upcoming performance at the ceremony, I think Sabrina will walk away with something, and this will likely be it. That being said, we wouldn’t be even remotely surprised if the VMAs give this to Taylor as well.
Best Hip-Hop: “BOA” by Megan Thee Stallion
One of the hardest categories to choose from, I think Megan Thee Stallion narrowly wins best hip hop. Her new album MEGAN has been massive, as well as all of the singles she released in the lead-up to the record. With Kendrick not being nominated, and the suspicion that Eminem is getting something else (they could also just give him this too though), Megan is mostly in the clear here. The other biggest competition is “FE!N” by Travis Scott and Playboi Carti, one of last year’s biggest smash hits. There’s a fairly decent argument that “FE!N” has had a longer-lasting impact than “BOA,” but we think the love for Megan Thee Stallion and her success this year will sway the VMAs in her direction, though it’ll be close.
Best R&B: “Water” by Tyla
Another close category, but Tyla will walk away with a win at the VMAs for “Water.” A massive song of this year, and part of a major album rollout, I think Tyla’s success will slightly outshine Victora Monet and SZA, both of which have good arguments for deserving this award. SZA is nominated in quite a few categories I predict she’ll lose, so this is SZA’s best shot at taking home an award. Victoria is the Grammys’ 2024 Best New Artist, and “On My Mama” was a big part of that success. However, I think she suffers a similar fate to Oliva Rodrigo with that song being too old for the VMAs in September. “Water” has also just left an undeniable impact with its runaway viral success. It’s close, but I think Tyla takes this home.
Best Alt: “Too Sweet” by Hozier
While there are a lot of great options here to choose from, there’s no song nominated for best alt that can even touch the success of “Too Sweet”. Hozier has had a pretty dominant year, and considering he’s not nominated in much else, this feels like a pretty safe win for him.
While this does not cover every category at the VMAs these are the ones we had the most thoughts on before the show. However, only the time will tell when award night arrives if any of these are correct.
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